From what I've been able to pick up from various comments on the subject, it doesn't seem like the majority of the "frenzied" think much of Cain Velasquez's chances of beating Shane Carwin in their impending match-up.
That being understood, I started thinking of what Velasquez could do in the 3 months or so until he steps into the cage with a HW who seems to be about as frighteningly strong as a character out of the X-Men or something. As it stands now, Velasquez's existing skill-set doesn't seem to be enough to get him past Carwin, and into a fight with either the Couture-Nog winner, or maybe even the Mir-Lesnar winner.
As far as I can determine, Velasquez seems to have the advantage in athleticsm and overall speed. Carwin obviously has the "Hulk smash!" advantage, the experience advantage with nearly twice as many fights as his opponent, plus the psychological advantage of being regarded as generally more bad-@$$.
It's hard to determine Carwin's level of cardio because he tends to not dawdle end thing suddenly in the cage, so maybe Velasquez has an edge there as well. Going into the fight, Velasquez has to be thinking to himself, "how do I beat this guy?"
The answer IMO is both obviously simple and as of yet nearly impossible to do. Velasquez needs to keep his distance from Carwin, keep him off-balance with measured, accurate strikes, and try to wear him out and drag the fight into the 2nd or 3rd round, if he can make it that far. Once Carwin tires, maybe Velasquez can score a takedown of his own, which might be more effective than it looks on the surface because not a lot of wrestler-types are good off of their backs, particularly when gassing. Once grounded, Velasquez should try something relatively unexpected, like a submission.
Yes, a submission.
I know how that sounds, but please hear me out before laughing at me.
I'm not 100% certain as to Velasquez's ground skills, but he has 3 months or so before he steps into the cage with an opponent who [to date] has appeared to be more monster than man. Velasquez by all accounts is a hard worker, more intelligent than generally given credit for, and is obviously a fast-learner, considering he's had a half-dozen fights and is already in contention.
In 90-100 days Velasquez could really develop some solid submission fundamentals, especially if he seeks out someone from the submission grappling ranks, like maybe Jeff Monson, if he was willing. Or he could head out to the Islands and train with someone like Ronald Jhun or Rylan Lizares, who I believe is a Gracie Technic's guy and currently ranked number 1 in Hawaii. They are also both coming off of facing each other, so one or the other might be available to roll with.
I know there are always going to be nay-sayers and doubters, but this fight is going to happen, and there is just no way that Velasquez, with all due respect, is going to out-power or out-wrestle Carwin, at least not in the first 7-8 minutes of the fight.
But if Velasquez can take Carwin deeper into a fight than he's been before with superior cardio, keep him guessing by mixing up his strikes with superior speed, and hit a takedown or throw maybe against or just off of the cage, he could catch Carwin in something taught to him between now and 24 October [I think], something he hasn't shown in the cage before, and something totally unexpected and kept on the downlow from the MMA media.
I know its a longshot, but I don't see another way of Velasquez beating Carwin at this stage of their careers. That is of course assuming that both come into the fight healthy, focused, and out of good solid training camps, which has been pretty much the story of both of these HW's in their MMA runs.
If anyone has a different or better solution for Velasquez, other than maybe waving Kryptonite in Carwin's face, I'd love to hear it.
