This seems to be a fight everyone here is getting on one side of the fence for so il give my best breakdown. Plus Fitch is one of my favorite fighters so a chance to discuss him is allways cool. I just wanna look at this fight from a few different angles since Fitch's mental game has been brought up on the main page aswell as his striking, wrestling and sub defence.
First things first everyone “almost” submits Fitch(Thiago,Carneiro,Sanchez) but he ends up grinding you out and getting the W. Pierce offers nothing to Jon in the submission department that he hasnt seen and overcome. Im giving the submission edge to Fitch as he has proved vitually impossible to tap and owns some decent sub victories himself. Plus his guerrilla jiu-jitsu black belt under Dave Camarillo wont hurt either. Larson had a couble of opportunities to lock up a kamora on Pierce but was unable to finish. Something Jon might look to expose and capitalize on.
As for striking Im going with Fitch here aswell. He might not have KO power but Jon has decent technique and a good reach advantage over Pierce. Mike is slow and flat footed on his feet and Fitch should be able to utilize his improving kicks to wear away on Mike. Even if Jon does get cought he will be fine. We have seen Fitch get hit with everything guys have like Wilson and GSP, weather the storm and keep going. Once again Pierce will offer nothing here Fich hasnt faced before.
The big problem here for Fitch is the wrestling and power of Pierce. On paper Fitch would be the better wrestler but we have seen that he isnt impossible to take down and control. Pierce is a brick wall who will look to press him up against the cage and do exactly what he did to Larson. Carneiro was able to take Fitch down and control him for parts of rnd 1, something Pierce can do if given the opportunity. The difference here is that Jon trains with one of the best wrestlers in the UFC everyday. And Fitch is no dummy, He knows what Mike brings to the table, has watched the fight with Larson and will bring a gamplan that Brock didnt. He will look to use his jab and kicks whereas Larson threw telegraphed straight lefts. The experience and mental factor will come in to play here and Jon has never been broken.
Fitch has allways come prepared for his fights win or lose. And a change in opponents wont deter him. This is the same guy who has to get kicked out of the gym everday remember. Who says when hes not training hes training. So we should all expect a hungry Pierce and a well motivated and well prepared Jon Fitch. Like GSP said “Fitch is like the Terminator”.
